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Equirus Securities stated that Lupin Ltd has seen a phenomenal US biz run over the last 4 years backed by a series of high value launches and recent high value drugs - gMyrbetriq & gJynarque aided the company in achieving highest ever quarterly Revenue and EBITDA in Q1.
Equirus Securities believe the company's US biz peaked in Q1 and is expected to decline over the next 6-8 quarters on the account of incremental competition in top 3 products (55% of US revenues) i.e. gJynarque, gMyrbetriq, gSpiriva.
The company believe Lupin continues to outperform IPM by ~1.2x, supported by new launches, growing chronic mix and in-licensed products.
Ex VISUfarma, the broking firm expect company's growth markets & other developed markets to deliver a 10–11% CAGR through FY28E, supported by new launches & expanding diabetes-metabolic franchise.
Lupin Ltd has used a 505 b (2) route to get its version of Apixaban (US$ 8 billion brand) before the market opens to generics. US FDA's decision to deny the suitability petition will force the drug to be marketed as an NDA and add multiple logistical challenges like need of field force to keep physicians abreast, limited formulary access, and slower product uptake. Since AB rated generics will launch from April'28, we expect the company's Apixaban revenue to be limited to US$ 50-70 million in FY28E, stated Equirus Securities.
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